Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya

被引:21
|
作者
Kimathi, Mark [1 ]
Mwalili, Samuel [2 ,3 ]
Ojiambo, Viona [3 ]
Gathungu, Duncan Kioi [3 ]
机构
[1] Machakos Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Machakos, Kenya
[2] Strathmore Univ, Ctr Hlth Analyt & Modeling, Nairobi, Kenya
[3] Jomo Kenyatta Univ Agr & Technol, Sch Math Sci, Nairobi, Kenya
关键词
Coronavirus; Non-pharmaceutical intervention; Age structured; Contact matrix; Mathematical model;
D O I
10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.012
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Kenya reported its first case on March 13, 2020 and by March 16, 2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve. An age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and burden. Contacts between different ages are incorporated via contact matrices. Simulation results show that 45% reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5-13% reduction of infections severity and deaths, while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8-22.7% reduction. The peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation, which happened a month after mitigations were relaxed. Low numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic cases. High numbers of cases are reported in the 15-29 years and 30-59 years age bands. Two mitigation periods, considered in the study, resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases, attack rates, hospital and ICU bed demands, as well as deaths, with the 190-days period giving higher reductions. (c) 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
引用
收藏
页码:15 / 23
页数:9
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