Future changes in wind energy resource over the Northwest Passage based on the CMIP6 climate projections

The preferential use of renewable energy sources such as wind power has been proposed as one of the most effective strategies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector. However, wind energy resources are vulnerable to climate change, which might have a huge impact on the area under consideration. In this research, we used the wind speed data obtained from the seven coupled global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantitatively analyze the differences in wind energy resource (WER) between the future and the historical period, geared toward understanding the impact of climate change on wind energy sources. Relevant results show that the future WER would decreases below 20% in the region south of the Northwest Passage, while would significantly increase in the north region of 72 degrees N (specifically in the Beaufort Sea). Further, reports predict that by the end of the 21st century, if no interventions are made to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, the northern region's WER would increase even more with some grid points exceeding 30% and have a significant growth trend, but at the same time the intra-annual variability in these region would also increase significantly with some grid points exceeding 140% of that in the historical period. Moreover, the maximum wind speed values would encounter a noteworthy increase of up to 20%, which will bring great challenge to the development of wind energy in these region. Although the current models still have great uncertainties in the future climate prediction, our work still has certain guiding significance for the future development of wind energy over the Northwest Passage.