MULTI-OBJECTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT ON WATER RESOURCES OPTIMAL ALLOCATION

Based on clarifying the meaning of risk in water resources allocation and risk factors that may affect the allocation, some main risk factors are identified. A risk analysis model of multi-objective water resources allocation is proposed. The method of risk evaluation in water resources allocation is also put forward based on the stochastic simulation technology. Case study on the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River indicates that the implementation of the project of diversion water from Changjiang River to Hanjiang River could obviously increase the comprehensive benefit during the low water year and median flow year and decrease the risk of disadvantage effects such as water deficit caused by the middle route project of South-to-North water diversion.