THE METHODICAL APPROACH OF BANKRUPTCY PROBABILITY ESTIMATION IN AN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF ENTERPRISE

The purpose of this study was to define an effective methodical approach to bankruptcy probability estimation in an anti-crisis management system using the example of metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine. The leading research methods were discriminatory analysis, the factorial analysis method, and the three-sigma rule. For research purposes, the financial funding of 20 metallurgical plants in Ukraine during the period of 2001 to 2017 was used. The overall number of observations was 112 financial indicators. In order to define enterprise bankruptcy risk indicators, the method of discriminant analysis was applied. Factor analysis of enterprise bankruptcy indicators enabled us to distinguish the variance, which describes the input of every indicator into the formation of the results and therefore defines the significance of the indicators in bankruptcy risk estimation. The range of integrated solvency index values by the class of enterprises with regard to bankruptcy risks was refined with regard to the 3-sigma rule. The elaborated methodical approach is the instrument for preventive anti-crisis management in Ukrainian enterprises due to its direction of determining early marks of insolvency. Approbation results for the elaborated methodical approach for metallurgical enterprises testified high bankruptcy risk caused by the enterprises' loss-making activities, which has a negative impact on the current financial standing and poses the potential threat of bankruptcy resulting from the lack of self-finance sources, thus reducing the enterprises' financial stability and creditworthiness.