Application of the double-bounded dichotomous choice model to the estimation of crowding acceptability in natural recreation areas

Investigating visitors' crowding norms is necessary to establish the carrying capacity of natural recreation areas. For this purpose, several question formats have been used, but it is known that these have methodological issues. To reduce these methodological issues, we compared several different question formats to investigate respondents' perceptions of acceptable crowding limits, using montage photographs of different numbers of people at four sites in Shiretoko and Yakushima World Natural Heritage Site in Japan. We applied the double-bounded dichotomous choice model used in the contingent valuation method. Our use of conventional longand short-format question models shows that acceptability decreases as the number of people increases, in singleand double-bounded models. This confirms the findings of past studies. Despite differences in the crowding norms as measured using different question formats, there was little difference in the number of people depicted in the photographs. The logit model of the double-bounded dichotomous choice model makes it possible to analyze the impact of differences in the number of people and other relevant factors, including the respondents' characteristics and attitudes. The number of respondents and the burden on respondents vary in each question format, and each provides different information to managers. Management implications: A double-bounded dichotomous choice model is shown to be a suitable method to analyze crowding norms at natural recreation sites. This model is less burdensome for respondents and requires fewer samples than some other methods. The choice model also permits one to analyze the influences of visitors' characteristics and other factors on crowding norms.