Growth of metro cities in India: trends, patterns and determinants

Using city-level census data this paper examines the trends, patterns and determinants of metro city growth in India and finds that the post-economic reforms period has heralded a rapid pace of metropolitan development, causing a dispersed pattern of metropolitan growth in the last two decades. The empirical results show that metro cities located along a riverbank and situated in the northern, eastern and southern regions of India; cities with better quality public services and those which are state capitals are revealed to grow faster than others. A proximity to a large city also spurs on nearby urban centres to become larger, highlighting agglomeration effects. In contrast, initial city size has a negative impact on metro growth, reflecting some conditional convergence in population growth across cities. It is also found that the older cities have not grown at a rapid pace, with many of them flagging remarkably low demographic growth, suggesting a process of population drift towards the periphery from the core city areas, thereby leading to an 'agglomerated trend' of metropolitan development in India. Finally, we argue that diverting investment and development projects towards regressive regions as well as to secondary cities for strengthening their infrastructure and economic bases may herald sustainable and balanced metropolitan development.