Structure and impact of atmospheric blocking over the Euro-Atlantic region in present-day and future simulations

The spatial structure of winter atmospheric blocking and its impact on the surface temperatures are analyzed for the current climate and a strong CO2 emission scenario over the Euro-Atlantic sector, using four different global circulation models. The models perform very well in describing the spatial pattern of meteorological fields associated with blocking, despite the well-known negative bias associated with the European blocking frequency. While a slight increase in the frequency of the Atlantic blocking is observed for the future climate, the European blocking frequency remains unchanged, with a net eastward shift apparent for the European warm blocking events. Under enhanced CO2 forcing, Atlantic blocking is associated with reduced amplitudes for positive and negative anomalies both in the geopotential height at 500 hPa and in the surface temperature, in particular for the latter. The anomalies associated with the occurrence of the two types of European blocking (those dominated by warm and cold air masses) exhibit changed shapes and locations in both the geopotential height and surface temperature fields, with only the cold cases leading to severe cold weather conditions over Europe and most of the polar region. Moreover, the eastward shift and amplification of the anticyclone associated with the warm events in the future is found to generate strong positive surface temperature anomalies over the entire polar cap. As a whole, the results show a marked increase in the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to blocking in the future. Key Points <list list-type="bulleted"> <list-item id="grl51339-li-0001">Models can describe accurately the spatial structure of blocking and its impact <list-item id="grl51339-li-0002">Future European blocking is projected to move eastward toward Western Russia <list-item id="grl51339-li-0003">Increase in the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to blocking in the future