Meteorological early warning systems (EWS) for drought preparedness and drought management in Nigeria

The Nigerian Department of Meteorological Services (NDMS) is currently implementing a meteorological early warning system (EWS) as part of its effort to combat the effects of drought in Nigeria. Knowledge of the onset of drought and other hazardous meteorological conditions is important for drought preparedness and management. Presently, the basic users of EWS products are government, media, and the agricultural industry. The EWS forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art equipment and models that were developed by NDMS staff or other researchers and scientists. These models include: (1) the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), (2) NDMS Prediction Schemes, and (3) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Prediction Schemes. We used the SPI model to study incidences of drought in Nigeria, and conducted two studies to evaluate the skill of the NDMS and SST Prediction Scheme models. The results indicate that the north has the highest incidence of drought years, in comparison to the south. The skill of both the NDMS and SST Prediction Schemes is low, but these models were found to be appropriate for planning purposes. Some of the limitations we identified as being responsible for the lower skill level of these models include data quality, station density, delivery systems, and identification of the predictable components of climate. As a result, we are proposing, as part of our future needs, the development of a robust modelling technique to identify and predict band-limited cyclic components of climate that will be based on a nonlinear model of the earth/ocean/atmosphere system.