Is there a housing bubble in China?

被引:20
|
作者
Zhi, Tianhao [1 ]
Li, Zhongfei [2 ]
Jiang, Zhiqiang [3 ]
Wei, Lijian [2 ]
Sornette, Didier [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] BNU HKBU United Int Coll, Div Sci & Technol, Zhuhai, Peoples R China
[2] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Business, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
[3] East China Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Finance, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China
[4] ETH, Dept Management Technol & Econ, Chair Entrepreneurial Risks, Zurich, Switzerland
[5] ETH, Dept Management Technol & Econ, Financial Crisis Observ, Zurich, Switzerland
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Housing bubble; Log-period-power-law-singularity; Bubble prediction; Chinese housing market; PRICES;
D O I
10.1016/j.ememar.2019.04.005
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over 35 representative Chinese cities. We apply the Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect whether there is any evidence of unsustainable, self-reinforcing speculative behaviours amongst the price series. We also investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from economic fundamentals by applying the E-G cointegration test. Overall, we found that 10 out of the 35 cities being examined had exhibited positive LPPLS signals. We propose that it is vital to conduct bubble diagnostic tests and implement relevant policies toward specific bubble characteristics.
引用
收藏
页码:120 / 132
页数:13
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