Cycles of electoral democracy in Latin America, 1900-2000

This article explores and identifies long-term patterns of political change in Latin America. Time-series analysis revealed the apparent existence of a "domino effect" through which democratization in Country X would increase the likelihood of similar change in neighboring countries Y and Z. The study also found considerable support for the idea that prior experience with democracy would increase the probability of subsequent experience with democracy -and that a single prior experience would establish a sufficient basis for democratic restoration. Such findings make a crucial point: Factors promoting democratization in Latin America tended to be internal to the region, rather than external.