Declining in population and growth - The population development in Germany as a challenge for economic and social policy

Because of the current financial crisis and the crisis of the German welfare state, the population development has become a topic of public discussion in Germany. The aging and decline of the population which is on the horizon of most of the highly-developed countries brings up fears of a "collapse" of the compulsory pension scheme which is leached out by the long running high unemployment and the burden of the reunification. This article deals with the assumption of an economy that declines with population, an assumption expressed by economicsts as well. The analysis of the impacts of population development has to consider that the altogether tectonic shifts perform in rather modest annual alternation rates and are overlaid by developments of single cohorts. In this context, the adaptability of the economy in the long run is underestimated. The decrease of the tabour force potential that results from a decline of the population can be adsorbed by the mobilisation of domestic tabour reserves accompanied by a controlled tabour market - and growth oriented immigration policy. There can also be improvements of quality, productivity and dynamics of growth provoked by the release of new tabour force. The risk of a shrinking of the economy can be coped with a long-ranging release of new tabour force and a economic policy supporting the resources of the economy.