Linking crude oil prices and Middle East stock markets

This study investigates the effects of oil prices (OPs) on stock markets in the Middle Eastern (ME) economies. The focus is on the dynamic relationship between crude OPs and stock market capitalisation (MC) in the ME. We use daily data from nine countries between the years 2001 and 2015 to examine the relationships based on Vector Autoregression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Impulse Response Function (IRF). VECM results indicate that there are long-run linkages between OP and MC in seven ME economies from 2001 to 2015, three countries in the pre-shale (2001-2008) and four countries in the post-shale (2009-2015) periods. The VAR models show short-run causality running from OP to MC in two countries from 2001 to 2015, five countries in pre-shale and six countries in post-shale periods. The IRFs verify the relationships between OPs and stock market value for most of the ME markets.