共 2 条
'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?
被引:39
|作者:
Smyth, Russell
[1
]
Nielsen, Ingrid
[2
]
Mishra, Vinod
[1
]
机构:
[1] Monash Univ, Dept Econ, Caulfield, Vic 3145, Australia
[2] Monash Univ, Dept Management, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia
关键词:
UNIT-ROOT HYPOTHESIS;
OIL-PRICE SHOCK;
TIME-SERIES;
GREAT CRASH;
FRACTIONAL ALTERNATIVES;
TESTS;
BREAKS;
EXPENDITURE;
POWER;
FIJI;
D O I:
10.1080/00036840601019356
中图分类号:
F [经济];
学科分类号:
02 ;
摘要:
International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.
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页码:1367 / 1378
页数:12
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