Forecasting technology diffusion: a new generalisation of the logistic model

被引:12
|
作者
Lotfi, Aslan [1 ]
Lotfi, Ali [2 ]
Halal, William E. [3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tehran, Dept Management, Kish, Iran
[2] Shahid Beheshti Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math, Tehran, Iran
[3] George Washington Univ, Sch Business, Dept Informat Syst & Technol Management, Washington, DC USA
[4] Bangkok Univ, Inst Knowledge & Innovat SE Asia, Bangkok, Thailand
关键词
technology diffusion; logistic model; numerical analysis; differential equation; GROWTH;
D O I
10.1080/09537325.2014.925105
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
The present research proposes a new generalisation of the logistic model aiming at technology diffusion forecasting. Regarding criticisms and failures reported in the literature to apply logistic function for long-term forecasting, in our work we focused on short-term accuracy of forecast. To formulate the model, based on mathematical approximation, at first the differential equation governing the diffusion process is found and then by solving the derived differential equation, the forecast function is obtained. In all steps, mathematical tools from numerical analysis are used. We compared the New Generalized Logistic Model with eight of the most renowned models in the literature. The model led to more accurate fits and forecasts than those obtained from other models we applied for comparison.
引用
收藏
页码:943 / 957
页数:15
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