Numerical Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization on an Extreme Precipitation Event over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China

In this study, an extreme rainstorm that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China on 19-20 July 2016 is simulated and analyzed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, coupled with a multilayer urban canopy scheme, to reveal the impact of urbanization on the extreme precipitation process in the region. The results show that the urban heat island effect (that is, surface warming and an increased near-ground sensible heat flux, which leads to increased vertical motion and atmospheric instability layer strengthening) plays a dominant role in the urban modification of rainfall during the early stages of urbanization, resulting in an increase of 6-10 mm in average hourly precipitation in urban and downwind areas. With the further development of urbanization in the BTH region, particularly in the big cities of Beijing and Tianjin, the large-scale expansion of the urban surface reduces the surface moisture, the evaporation of surface water from the ground, and the height of the atmospheric boundary layer, leading to an urban dry island effect brought about by the lack of near-surface water vapor, which inhibits an increase in precipitation. The positive effect of the urban heat island on precipitation was offset by the urban dry island effect, so the increase in precipitation in the urban areas was not obvious, but an increased range of 8-10 mm was noted. The existence of large cities changes the position of the strong upward movement of air, and convective upward movement is more likely to occur between the suburbs. With the further expansion of the underlying surface of the adjacent cities of Beijing and Tianjin, the upward movement between the two cities coincides, leading to an obvious increase in precipitation between the two cities.