The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09

被引：32

作者：

Frigg, Roman ^{[1
]}

Smith, Leonard A. ^{[1
]}

Stainforth, David A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] London Sch Econ, LSE Ctr Philosophy Nat & Social Sci CPNSS, Dept Philosophy Log & Sci Method, London, England

来源：

PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE | 2013年 / 80卷 / 05期

关键词：

DECISION-SUPPORT; ADAPTATION; PREDICTION;

D O I：

10.1086/673892

中图分类号：

N09 [自然科学史]; B [哲学、宗教];

学科分类号：

01 ; 0101 ; 010108 ; 060207 ; 060305 ; 0712 ;

摘要：

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program's UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the twenty-first century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this article is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end of this century.

引用

页码：886 / 897

页数：12

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