A trial derivation of seismic plate coupling by focusing on the activity of shallow slow earthquakes

To understand the effect of plate coupling on very low-frequency event (VLFE) activity resulting from megathrust earthquakes, we performed long-term multiscale earthquake cycle simulations (including a megathrust earthquake and slow earthquakes) on a 3-D subduction plate boundary model, based on a rate-and state-dependent friction law. Our simulation suggests that quiescence of shallow VLFEs off Miyagi may be explained by the location in the shallow central part of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake because of the locally strong coupling, while observed activation of VLFEs off Iwate (northern part of Tohoku district), Fukushima (southern part of Tohoku district), and Ibaraki (northern part of Kanto district) is explained by the location on the outer rim. The area and duration of the quiescence off Miyagi may be a new clue to evaluate the potential for plate coupling strong enough to cause the next megathrust earthquake.