2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model

被引:28
|
作者
Yoshimura, Chihiro [1 ]
Zhou, Maichun [2 ]
Kiem, Anthony S.
Fukami, Kazuhiko
Prasantha, Hapuarachchi H. A.
Ishidaira, Hiroshi [3 ]
Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi
机构
[1] Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo 1528552, Japan
[2] S China Agr Univ, Coll Water Conservancy & Civil Engn, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Yamanashi, Interdisciplinary Grad Sch Med & Engn, Yamanashi, Japan
关键词
Distributed hydrological model; Total nitrogen; Total phosphorus; Scenario analysis; NITROGEN; BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION; TRANSPORT; IMPACT; EXPORT;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.06.026
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
A distributed hydrological model, YHyM, was integrated with the export coefficient concept and applied to simulate the nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin. In the validation period (1992-1999). Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 76.4% for discharge, 65.9% for total nitrogen, and 45.3% for total phosphorus at Khong Chiam. Using the model, scenario analysis was then performed for the 2020s taking into account major anthropogenic factors: climate change, population, land cover, fertilizer use, and industrial waste water. The results show that the load at Kompong Cham in 2020s is 6.3 x 10(4) tN a(-1) (+ 13.0% compared to 1990s) and 4.3 x 10(3) tP a(-1) (+ 24.7%). Overall. the noticeable nutrient sources are cropland in the middle region and urban load in the lower region. The installation of waste water treatment plants in urban areas possibly cut 60.6%N and 19.9%P of the estimated increase in the case without any treatment. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:5356 / 5366
页数:11
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