Critical factors in strategic planning for infrastructure design

The world in which we live is subject to changes that are not always predictable. This poses enormous challenges in the design of long-lasting infrastructures, such as drinking water supply infrastructure. We propose that future-oriented design processes must pay attention to the identification of uncertainties and incorporate strategies to deal with this uncertainty. Methods for dealing with uncertainties can be found in the literature. Nevertheless, these methods have not yet been translated for application in the field of infrastructures. In this paper, the concept of dealing with uncertainty is explored and a theoretical framework for identification and dealing with uncertainties is presented. The concept of uncertainty is defined in relation to infrastructure design and uncertain factors for water supply designs are listed. The (potential) impact of uncertain factors on system performance, and thus on system design, is explained by way of the systems analysis approach. Five basic categories of tactics to deal with uncertainty are presented: influencing the driving forces; influencing the system; mitigating the effects of unwanted changes; investing in research and development; and delaying decisions. Finally, an example is given of a systematic approach to dealing with critical factors in a water supply infrastructure design for a new residential area in the vicinity of Amsterdam.