Short-run and long-run impacts of a major transport infrastructure: The channel tunnel

Many claims are made about the way in which major new transport infrastructures affect both traffic patterns and the economies of surrounding regions. This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Channel Tunnel on cross-Channel freight traffic over the first three years of operation and examines the way in which such changes lead to longer term changes in the organisation of logistics and the locations of users. The paper outlines the complexity of the market, the difficulties of forecasting traffic, the way; the market has evolved; and some preliminary findings from an in-depth survey of users. This shows the importance of separating short term traffic generation and distribution effects from these longer term changes.