Study on the Establishment of the Forecast Model of System Dynamics in the Strategic Environmental Assessment of Traffic Development Planning in Changchun Municipality

In the research on the environment assessment of the traffic development planning in Changchun, environmental impact forecast is a very important part. This paper tries to adopt system dynamics, a commonly used method to solve complicated non-lineal issues, to analyze and study the traffic and relevant systems in Changchun from the aspects of population, economy, environment, resource and transportation. Forecast models are established for each subsystem, and their validity are checked with historical retrospective test method, and it proves that these models can represent the actual systems effectively, so they can provide help for simulating change tendency of various systems in the further research, and reference for applied research of system dynamics in strategic environmental assessment.