A chronological probabilistic approach in production costing with multi-area transfer consideration

In this paper, a new cumulant chronological probabilistic production costing approach for multi-area power systems is developed. The proposed approach uses an improved cumulant method, which gives an approximation of the distribution function of available capacity with the chronological load curve to estimate the expected production cost. The chronological information is taken into account in the probabilistic production costing. By this model, a gradient projection method is then used to optimize the expected production cost of the multi-area power system, constrained by the transfer capability of interconnection links. A 3-area simulation system study is presented to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of this approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd