Medium-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on MARS

被引：0

作者：

Ilseven, Engin ^{[1
]}

Gol, Murat ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Middle East Tech Univ, Dept Elect & Elect Engn, Ankara, Turkey

来源：

2017 IEEE PES INNOVATIVE SMART GRID TECHNOLOGIES CONFERENCE EUROPE (ISGT-EUROPE) | 2017年

关键词：

Multiple Linear Regression; Generalized Additive Models; Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines; Artificial Neural Networks; Electricity Demand Forecasting; ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINES; POWER SYSTEMS; LOAD;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TP3 [计算技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

The paper proposes use of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method to perform monthly electricity demand forecasting for medium-term. The model is developed based on specific example of Turkey; however is applicable to any other system. Performance of the proposed method is compared to that of multiple linear regression (MLR), generalized additive model (GAM), and artificial neural networks (ANN) methods. The validation process shows that the proposed model outperforms the other ones by test error and shows stable error performance.

引用

页数：6

共 50 条

[1] Seasonal climate forecasts for medium-term electricity demand forecasting
De Felice, Matteo
Alessandri, Andrea
Catalano, Franco
[J]. APPLIED ENERGY, 2015, 137 : 435 - 444
[2] Interpretable Modeling for Short- and Medium-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting
Hirose, Kei
[J]. FRONTIERS IN ENERGY RESEARCH, 2021, 9
[3] Medium-term forecasting of demand prices on example of electricity prices for industry
Kossov V.V.
[J]. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2014, 25 (5) : 456 - 466
[4] Medium-term Electric Power Demand Forecasting Based on Economic-electricity Transmission Model
Li, Wenfeng
Bao, Fangmin
Bai, Hongkun
Liu, Wei
Liu, Yongmin
Mao, Yubin
Wang, Jiangbo
Liu, Junhui
[J]. MATERIALS SCIENCE, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND POWER ENGINEERING II (MEP2018), 2018, 1971
[5] Probabilistic forecasting of medium-term electricity demand: a comparison of time series models
Berk, Kevin
Mueller, Alfred
[J]. JOURNAL OF ENERGY MARKETS, 2016, 9 (02) : 1 - 20
[6] Forecasting medium-term electricity demand in Thailand: comparison of ANN, SVM, DBN, and their ensembles
Pannakkong, Warut
Aswanuwath, Lalitpat
Buddhakulsomsiri, Jirachai
Jeenanunta, Chawalit
Parthanadee, Parthana
[J]. 2019 17TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ICT AND KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING (ICT&KE), 2019, : 33 - 38
[7] Medium-term Forecasting of Electricity Demand in the Regions Using End-use Model
Sowinski, Janusz
[J]. PRZEGLAD ELEKTROTECHNICZNY, 2019, 95 (07): : 141 - 145
[8] Forecasting medium-term electricity demand in a South African electric power supply system
Sigauke, Caston
[J]. JOURNAL OF ENERGY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, 2017, 28 (04) : 54 - 67
[9] Medium-term electricity demand forecasting model divided by sector in Vietnam based on electricity saving variables and energy efficiency index
Cao Xuan Thang
Khai Phan Van
Ngo Thi Thu Trang
Lan Dong Thi Ngoc
Chau Van Dinh
Ha-Nam Nguyen
[J]. 2023 ASIA MEETING ON ENVIRONMENT AND ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, EEE-AM, 2023,
[10] Regional Medium-Term Hourly hlectricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM
Sun, Hongfei
Duan, Dongliang
Zhang, Hongming
Choi, Seong
Luo, Jie Rockey
Yang, Liuqing
[J]. 2023 IEEE POWER & ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING, PESGM, 2023,

← 1 2 3 4 5 →