Day-Ahead Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting: A Case in Yunnan

The newly-reformed Yunnan electricity market has been operating successfully for three years with more and more abundant trade varieties and perfect trading mechanism. The vitality of the market is increasing year by year. Market participants are gradually exploring reasonable bidding strategies, and the accurate electricity price forecasting is a joint demand for all the market members. With comprehensive considerations of the social economic background, the structure of the power system, the market development state, and other factors in Yunnan, this paper analyzes various factors and rules that have effects on the electricity price in day-ahead market. Furthermore, a successful application of an auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model to electricity price forecasting (EPF) is presented. The case study based on real data of day-ahead market in Yunnan shows that the proposed model could reflect the characteristics of electricity price and the results prove this model's effectivity.