THE FORECAST OF CLUSTER ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL CLUSTER DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

This article is the final stage of the research devoted to the problems of evaluating and forecasting the cluster projects efficiency as a mechanism for the sustainable region development. Here we emphasize the methodology to analyze the cluster projects economic efficiency using expert probability estimation of cluster development scenarios implementation. Expert surveys are used in all of the considered approaches to cluster analysis due to the complexity and high uncertainty of cluster projects implementation. Thus, the analysis of cluster economic efficiency might be supplemented in terms of improving the relationship between expert information and financial model indicators. As a result of financial model interrelated indicators adjustment with expert information we obtain the vector of economic efficiency indicators, consisting of the possible values and the corresponding scenario probabilities. We have tested an additional stage of cluster project efficiency estimation using scenario forecast based on the expert-statistical Bayesian method. We estimated the probabilities of cluster development scenarios implementation and the ways to improve economic efficiency using the example of Omsk petrochemical cluster project "The first stage of creating an industrial complex for the bisphenol-A and polycarbonate production: preparation of the technological and raw material base" and the collected expert information. According to calculations, the experts are unanimous that an inert scenario looks most likely. The other half of the mixed development trajectory falls on the rest other three scenarios, where the "State Paternalism" scenario is most likely. The system of interrelated financial project indicators was adjusted and efficiency indicators were calculated for various development trajectories based on estimated event probabilities. The presented methodology may be useful as a tool for strategic planning, since it allows determining the available opportunities and limitations as well as the ways to get closer to the desired development trajectory.