Studies on Algorithms of Power System Probabilistic Production Simulation Considering Wind Farms

There are some problems of the existing algorithms of the power system probabilistic production simulation, such as inaccurate description of wind power output and great quantity of computation. For the problems, a new probabilistic production simulation method based on chronological load curve will be proposed in this paper. Firstly, the wind speed ARAM model based on the characteristics of wind power is used to simulate the uncertainty and time-varying patterns of wind power. Secondly, an algorithm of probabilistic production simulation based on available capacity distribution (ACD) is adopted to calculate wind power expected output. Then combining the chronological load curve with thermal power unit available capacity probability density function to simulate thermal power. Finally, the final expected output of thermal power unit and system reliability indexes can be gotten. The algorithm can not only reflect the randomness of wind power output but also can reflect the time-varying patterns of wind power and load. In addition, it can simplify the process of probabilistic production simulation and improve the calculation efficiency. By the end of the article, the effectiveness of the method was verified based on the data of IEEE-RTS system.