Prediction of concentrations of PM2.5 in Downtown Quito using the Chaos Theory

Pollution with particular material called PM2.5, is made up of particles of lower or equal aerodynamic diameter to 2.5 microns, that are in the atmosphere, penetrate the respiratory system and be deposited in the pulmonary alveoli and even reach the bloodstream. The main objective of this article is to predict the PM2.5 concentration levels in Quito's historic downtown located in Ecuador (0 degrees 13'12.46 '' S, 78 degrees 30'36.97 '' O, height 2830 m) using the chaos theory, as an alternative to the traditional methods, which will help the prevention of the effects caused by the mentioned pollutant. Historical data of PM2.5 (mu g/m(3)) concentrations were collected, between 2005-2016, registered by the Metropolitan Atmospheric Monitoring Network of Quito. Data series were created per hour, 24-hour and monthly averages. Prior to predictability analysis, the data series, were subjected to noise reduction to then evaluate various parameters that is used in chaos theory, how is the delay time, the embedding dimension and the Lyapunov's coefficients. It was found that the series of data per hour and averages in 24 hours, have a chaotic behavior, except the series of data of the monthly averages. The results of the hypothesis tests of the predictions for 24 hours, 7 days and 6 months, determine that there is no significant difference between the real and predicted data at 95 percent reliability, with an error of the square root of the mean that goes between 6.27 and 3.09 (mu g/m(3)).