Risk Assessment of Generation and Transmission Systems Considering Wind Power Penetration

The reliability model of the wind farm is established considering the randomness of the wind speed, the power characteristics of the wind turbine, wind turbine operation conditions, derating operating status, step-up transformer and high-voltage transmission line failure rate and other factors. Because the traditional assessment method has large sample size and low efficiency for large-scale wind power penetration, the new assessment method for generation and transmission systems with large-scale wind power based on scattered sampling monte-carlo technique is proposed in this paper. This method has [0,1] interval divided into several sub-interval in which the system index can be calculated independently which indirectly increase the sampling frequency of the fault condition. So the scattered sampling Monte-Carlo method could reduce sample times and enhance sampling efficiency. According to the random and intermittent of wind power, the risk indexes which fully reflect the impact of power generation and transmission systems are given. The calculation and analysis of improved IEEE-RTS 79 reliability test systems show that the proposed algorithm is effective.