A sustainable urban water management model under uncertainty: a case study

Purpose Tackling the challenges of water scarcity requires comprehensive management according to financial, environmental and social issues. This paper aims to develop a planning approach for systematic decision-making and pay attention to uncertainties in water demand management and supply investment. Design/methodology/approach This study presents a multiobjective optimization model to manage water resources based on the balance of supply and demand. The objectives of the model include economic, social and environmental (sustainable development) factors. The model achieves an optimal urban water portfolio by using a scenario tree. Findings The mathematical goal programming (GP) in a multiobjective optimization model is applied and solved by the branch and bound method. The results indicate the selected supply augmentation and demand management options in each stage for 20 years according to the dry, normal and wetness year scenarios. Practical implications This model is based on a real-world case and has been implemented in the city of Karaj. It can be applied for water management of other cities concerning sustainable development as well. Originality/value This paper innovates by considering the sustainable development criteria that are defined using three objective functions, including economic, social and environmental factors. The balance of supply and demand concerning uncertainty has not been investigated in any urban water portfolios. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is incorporated to generate different scenarios. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this approach is used for the first time.