Risk analysis of LPG transport by road and rail

Historical data concerning more than 130 LPG rail and road transport accidents were critically examined, identifying the scenarios, following their evolution into the final accidental events, and determining their theoretical probabilities of occurrence. In principle, rail accidents are rather hazardous, the most probable scenario being a major release followed by an UVCE. However, in order to discriminate among road and rail transport, the relevant number of trips and accident rates should be taken into account. In fact, the application, concerning the transport of 5700 ton/year of LPG in Italy along one rail and two different road itineraries, showed that the risk for rail transport was more than one order of magnitude lower than that fbr those on the roads. The population density along the route and the accident rate, rather than the length of the route, appear the most important factors for discriminating between different itineraries. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.