Energy consumption and air pollution: Forecasts for 2000 AD and 2010 AD for Calcutta city

Megacities have grown in terms of size, population and economic activity with deleterious effects on their air quality. However, information on the energy consumption patterns and consequent emission of pollutants in these cities is scanty. The focus of this study is on Calcutta city in terms of its energy consumption patterns, pollutant emissions for the period 1980-1990, and future forecasts. Annual data obtained from secondary sources has been used in the construction of energy-pollutant matrices for each year, in terms of the fuels LPG, kerosene, firewood, petrol and diesel and the consequent emissions of TSP,CO, HC, NO, SO2 and Pb. Results show that coal consumed in thermal power production is the major source of pollution. The share of the industrial sector in total emissions is the largest, though it has declined over the decade due to the growing contribution of the transport sector where the consumption of petrol and diesel are growing at the rates of 14.28% and 8.1% respectively. Domestic consumption of coal shows a decline, possibly due to a shift towards kerosene and LPG. The total emissions in Calcutta have increased from 224 th tons in 1980-81 to 286 th tons in 1989-90; CO is growing at the fastest rate of 3852 tons/yr. Forecasts for 2000&2010 A.D, indicate total pollution loads of 352 th tons and 415 th tons under a BAU scenario. Scenario analysis assuming that the emission norms for 2000 are met, indicate considerable reduction in emissions.