Using Statistical Methods to Assess a Surveillance Program

Three metrics have been been developed to assess the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) Surveillance Program against its objectives of detecting defects, determining margins and validating predictions. The surveillance metrics use statistical methods and are probabilities or confidences that produce quantitive assessments on a 0 to 1 scale-from no confidence that a given data stream achieves its surveillance program objectives to complete confidence that the data stream fulfills the objectives. These metrics may be compared and rolled up to support NNSA Surveillance Program management decisions.