Technology options and policy design to facilitate decarbonization of chemical manufacturing

This paper reviews technology options to decarbonize the production of ammonia, methanol, and ethylene, which together are responsible for about half of all greenhouse gas emissions from the chemical sector. The potential CO2 abatement of each technology is assessed in terms of the marginal cost of CO2 abated. Based on this analysis, carbon capture and storage (CCS) offers the lowest marginal cost and should be highly emphasized to maximize abatement in the near term. Using low-carbon hydrogen and large-scale process, electrification enables much larger emission abatement volumes, but significant cost reductions are necessary to realize their full potential. Other options assessed, such as the use of bio-based inputs and demand-side measures, also offer sizable abatement, but each faces unique challenges. Targeted policies are identified that can capitalize on the current low-cost technologies in the near term and improve the applicability of currently less-actionable technologies in the long term by addressing barriers of cost, lack of infrastructure, resource availability, and technological maturity.