Will Italy meet the ambitious European target for R&D expenditure? Natura non facit saltus

The paper addresses the issue as to whether the Italian scientific and technological system can achieve the Barcelona targets set by the heads of state and government (3% of GDP devoted to R&D by the year 2010) and by the R&D guidelines set by the Italian Ministry for Education, University, and Research (MIUR) (to achieve the level of 1.75% of the ratio in the year 2006). The projections built in the paper show that such objectives are well beyond Italy's potential, and that according to a "natura non facit saltus" (NNFS) projection, the country will be able to raise the ratio from 1.04% in 2002 to 1.55% in 2010. Such projection rests on rather optimistic assumptions: higher priority attached to R&D in the government budget, an increasing propensity of firms to invest their value added in R&D, and an increase of researchers' salaries. The difficulty to achieve the objectives set at the European and national level is due to the low starting point, to the lack of additional investment from 2001 to 2003, and to structural factors such as insufficient supply of qualified human resources, the small size of high-tech industry, and constraints imposed by the reduction of public spending. The attainment of R&D policy objectives is more and more dependent on education, industrial, and public budget policies; the issue of a thorough review of the governance of the whole S&T system at the national level is therefore raised. The situation is accentuated by the fact that decisions taken at national level are conditioned by the European union (through the Framework Program, the regulations regarding state aid to firms, etc.) by multinational enterprises, which operate on a global scale, and by regions in the framework of their autonomy. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.