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Forecasting uptake of retrofit packages in office building stock under government incentives
被引:19
|作者:
Higgins, Andrew
[1
]
Syme, Mike
[2
]
McGregor, James
[3
]
Marquez, Leorey
[4
]
Seo, Seongwon
[2
]
机构:
[1] CSIRO Ecosyst Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
[2] CSIRO Ecosyst Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
[3] CSIRO Energy Technol, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
[4] CSIRO Computat Informat, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
来源:
关键词:
Office buildings;
Energy efficiency;
Diffusion model;
Incentives;
Retrofit;
D O I:
10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.041
中图分类号:
F [经济];
学科分类号:
02 ;
摘要:
As government and industry plan to reduce energy consumption in building stock, there is a need to forecast the uptake of retrofit packages across building stock over time. To address this challenge a diffusion model was set up and applied to office building stock across New South Wales (NSW) in Australia, accommodating a high spatial resolution and temporal capability for projecting uptake of technology packages characterised by multiple variables. Six retrofit packages were set up for the diffusion model, which ranged from inexpensive services and manuals through to mid-priced packages involving energy efficient T5 lighting and solar hot water through to expensive packages such as chilled beams and Solar PV. We evaluated the model using a base case and two policy programs, representing the Green Building Fund and Environmental Upgrade Agreements. These were recent incentive programs funded by the Australian government to accelerate the uptake of retrofit packages, by providing financial support to upfront expenditures and removing barriers to retrofit. By forecasting uptake of each retrofit package to 2032 under each program, we demonstrate how the model can be a valuable resource in tailoring expensive government programs and increasing their effectiveness. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页码:501 / 511
页数:11
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