Reduction of Surprise: Some Thoughts on Dowding's Conception of Explanation

Keith Dowding's book is a tour de force through some important debates in the philosophy of the social sciences. In this short comment I focus on the role of explanation and how (if at all) causation is or should be related to explanation in political science. By appealing to the difference between predictive and explanatory power, I critically engage with Dowding's proposal that explanation is the reduction of surprise. This leads me to a brief detour to the philosophy of models before I return to the issue of causation, especially the difference between causation as dependence and causation as production and how this distinction can inform methodological debates in political science.