Choosing the West? Referendum choices on EU membership in east-central Europe

This study examines the determinants of mass preferences for membership in the European Union among citizens in applicant states of Central and Eastern Europe. We hypothesize that citizens in these countries evaluate prospective membership in the EU on the basis of collective and individual cost-benefit calculi. Moreover, we posit that attitudes toward EU membership reflect people's underlying political predispositions, Such as support for political parties, the political and economic transition, as well as ties with the West. Using data collected in six East European states in 1996, we find that citizens who think they or their country will benefit from EU membership are more likely to say they would vote for it in a referendum. Moreover, citizens who support the free market economy and express positive views about ties with other countries are more supportive of EU membership. However, in contrast to expectations, support for membership in the EU is not a clear-cut preference in favor of the West and for what it stands. Instead, preferences for membership are based on a mix of utilitarian considerations and an internationalist outlook. (C) 2002 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.