The future welfare burden - Scottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1998

For the last quarter of the twentieth century, in the UK and much of the rest of the developed world, the scale of the future welfare burden has been at the heart of political and economic debate. After a century, of largely tax funded growth, through periods of enormous demographic, social and economic change, concerns about the possibility or consequences of further growth began to be voiced more and more frequently and across a wider political range. Perhaps because the welfare state is so emotive a subject, much of the debate has been rather vague, and on occasion confused and ill-informed. Our aim in this paper is to set out the context for a coherent debate about what happens next.