Use of density to predict crop yield loss between variable seasons

Density:yield loss models rely on fixed coefficients, parameterized from a particular site and season to predict the impact of weeds on crop yields. However, the empiricism of this approach and failure to incorporate environmental effects, has major biological and economic implications. In this study, seasonal variability in wheat yield loss and associated economic costs from Avena spp. were quantitated. A competition experiment at Wagga Wagga, NSW, showed large seasonal differences in wheat yield loss from densities of Avena spp. across 2 years. Gross margins, simulated over a 51-year period, decreased as Avena spp. density increased and were more variable at low crop densities and higher weed densities. For example, at a density of 200 Avena spp. plants m(-2), coefficient of variation in crop gross margin (CV) was $AUS 47 ha(-1) for a crop density of 200 wheat plants m(-2) compared with a CV of $AUS 75 ha(-1) for a crop density of 50 wheat plants m(-2). The value of yield loss predictions will be vastly improved by making parameter values in yield loss models a function of seasonal factors such as rainfall.