Spread modelling: a suitable tool to explore the role of human-mediated dispersal in the range expansion of the yellow-legged hornet in Europe

Invasive species can spread locally on their own and can be introduced at long distance by humans. Here, we show how a spread model can be used to explore the role of humans in the range expansion of the invasive yellow-legged hornet, Vespa velutina nigrithorax, in Europe with a special focus on some islands. In 2017, the hornet distribution in France, southern Belgium, south-eastern Germany and northern Spain could largely be explained by the insect's own dispersal while the occurrence in Portugal, Italy, the Netherlands and Great Britain likely results from human-mediated dispersal. However, in the following years, it could spread to Portugal, Italy and Great Britain also by its own means. The yellow-legged hornet has likely reached the Channel Islands by its own flight but it could hardly reach the Mediterranean islands. Hence, the infestation in Majorca likely results from an accidental introduction. When simulating human-mediated dispersal in the Mediterranean islands, the hornet density would remain relatively low anyhow. Assessing the means of dispersal is important in terms of pest management as the target is either to reduce the spread rate and the population density, or to reduce the risk of entry.