Chronic and Transient Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence Using a Simple Spells Approach

This paper uses panel data and two welfare indicators, namely per capita expenditure and per capita food expenditure, to determine the frequency that the households enter poverty and food poverty in the Philippines. Unlike other studies, this paper attributes similar factors to explain transient and chronic poverty but finds that these factors are more pronounced for the chronic case. Significant factors that contribute to both chronic and transient poverty and food poverty are the household heads' low educational level, affiliation in economically unstable and risky occupations such as those in the agriculture, fishery and resource sectors and those who are unskilled laborers, the lack of health insurance and high dependency burden. The paper also finds that that vulnerability to poverty and food poverty in the Philippines is high especially in the rural districts and areas with armed conflict. Households that experience higher earnings, new job, abundant harvest, better health or receipt of remittance/inheritance are less likely to be chronically poor. Shocks related to labor market affect both transient and chronic food poverty while natural calamities or health deterioration of any household member increase the probability of the household falling into chronic food poverty. Policy suggestions to address both types of poverty are provided.