Spatio-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Rwanda

Given the scarcity of resources in developing countries like Rwanda, malaria control requires new strategies that target specific populations, time periods and geographical areas. While the spatial pattern of malaria incidence varies depending on local conditions, its temporal evolution has yet to be evaluated in Rwanda. The aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria incidence in Rwanda. GIS was used to delineate the health centre catchment areas. Optimized hotspots analysis was performed to detect the spatio-temporal patterns of hotspots of malaria from 2010 to 2017. SPSS software was used to generate boxplots comparing the intensity of inter-annual variation of malaria cases at health centre catchment scale. This study highlighted the spatial variability and relative temporal stability of malaria hotspots in lowlands and the coldspots of malaria incidence in highlands. Information on malaria hotspot dynamics can help to improve the health outcomes of malaria control and reduction strategies in Rwanda. As malaria data were aggregated at health centre level, further research can use malaria prevalence at the household scale and investigate the driving factors of malaria occurrence in the identified malaria hotspots. This would allow for the development of better-targeted control strategies.