Modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector in Istanbul by 2050

Climate change has become popular in recent years. To discuss and reduce the harmful effects on environment, important actions are taken in international negotiations. Paris Agreement, entered into force in November 2016, aims to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and maintain the global average temperature raising below 2 degrees C, countries that have ratified the agreement should declare their contribution to reducing GHG emissions. one of the most important components contributing to global GHG emissions is the transportation sector. The GHG emission from the transportation sector is 84.7 Mton CO(2)eq. which accounts for 16% of the total GHG emissions throughout Turkey in 2017. Road transportation with a rate of 93%, corresponds to the biggest share of GHG emissions from the transportation sector. In the current study, GHG emissions were modelled from 2016 to 2050, in order to assess the impacts of the transportation sector on climate change in Istanbul, which is the most populous city and has the highest number of vehicles in Turkey. Istanbul has a major importance for Turkey, from the point of its energy consumption and climate-related emissions. For this purpose, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) as a technology-rich and economic model was used. The results of the study were obtained for the reference scenario, which assumes that the existing plans and policies will continue until 2050. Furthermore, three alternative scenarios were studied which are related to electric rail transportation (Scenario 1), electric and hybrid cars (Scenario 2) and limited CO2 emissions (Scenario 3). Results show that the total GHG reduction is 1.1% Scenario 1, 11% for Scenario 2 and 39% for Scenario 3 in 2050. In the third scenario where the emission limitation was introduced to the model, there was a trend towards vehicles with higher amounts of LPG and CNG to keep the emission at the desired level, and fuel consumption was approximately 5.5% higher than the reference scenario in 2050.