Class and voting in the 1996 Australian Federal Election

This paper examines the relationship between various dimensions of class and voting for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) at the 1996 election. It compares the traditional manual/nonmanual occupational class measure and the eight category version of Goldthorpe's schema used in Baxter er al. (1991). As well, it analyses interactions with class self-identification and a range of work-related variables and discusses the nature of politically relevant social cleavages at the election. The analyses are conducted within the framework of comprehensive multilevel models, incorporating a wide range of social-structural variables. One conclusion is that, although the Goldthorpe measure is superior to the traditional one, occupational class was not strongly related to voting in 1996. However, work-related variables in general were of most importance. Also, sectoral differences in voting were noticeable, with the results suggesting the existence of a state dependent voting bloc, whose interests can be seen as antagonistic to those of some of the ALP's traditional supporters. In relation to political aspects, I suggest that some of the ALP's policies while in government from 1983 to 1996 have resulted in long-term changes which worked to its disadvantage: one important consideration was its failure to reform the indirect tax system in a way that would have allowed for changes in the incidence of direct taxation. Nevertheless, class self-identification not only maintains a separate, independent influence on voting, but also has interactions with most work-related variables, and a number of other longstanding factors (trade union membership and religion, especially) continue to be of importance, suggesting that the size of the ALP's defeat in the election does not necessarily indicate long-term disadvantage. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.