The macroeconomic impact of Trump

被引：8

作者：

Born, Benjamin ^{[1
,2
]}

Mueller, Gernot J. ^{[3
,4
]}

Schularick, Moritz ^{[5
,6
]}

Sedlacek, Petr ^{[7
,8
]}

机构：

[1] Frankfurt Sch Finance & Management, Dept Econ, Frankfurt, Germany

[2] CEPR, Frankfurt, Germany

[3] Univ Tubingen, Sch Business & Econ, Tubingen, Germany

[4] CEPR, Tubingen, Germany

[5] Univ Bonn, Dept Econ, Bonn, Germany

[6] CEPR, Dept Econ, Bonn, Germany

[7] Univ Oxford, Sedlacek Dept Econ, Oxford, England

[8] CEPR, Oxford, England

来源：

POLICY STUDIES | 2021年 / 42卷 / 5-6期

关键词：

President Trump; macroeconomic performance; economic growth; counterfactual; synthetic control method; doppelganger;

D O I：

10.1080/01442872.2021.1909718

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学]; D035 [国家行政管理]; D523 [行政管理]; D63 [国家行政管理];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ; 1204 ; 120401 ;

摘要：

Donald Trump was the President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. During that time, except for the period since spring 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on economic activity, the US economy has been doing very well according to key indicators like the unemployment rate and GDP growth. Does Trump deserve credit for the booming economy? To address this question, we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump - we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the performance of the US economy during Trump's Presidency to this synthetic "doppelganger". There is little evidence for a Trump effect.

引用

页码：580 / 591

页数：12

共 50 条

[1] The Macroeconomic Impact of the Euro
Akhmadieva, Veronika
Smith, Ron P.
[J]. SCIENTIFIC ANNALS OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS, 2019, 66 : 229 - 249
[2] The Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization
Mackenzie G.A.
[J]. Staff Papers, 1998, 45 (2): : 363 - 373
[3] The macroeconomic impact of privatization
MacKenzie, GA
[J]. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND STAFF PAPERS, 1998, 45 (02): : 363 - 373
[4] The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest
Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij
Pienknagura, Samuel
Ricci, Luca Antonio
[J]. B E JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS, 2023, 23 (02): : 917 - 958
[5] The macroeconomic impact of NAFTA termination
Steinberg, Joseph B.
[J]. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE, 2020, 53 (02): : 821 - 865
[6] THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF ROMANIAN TOURISM
Fintineru, Alexandru
Fintineru, Gina
Smedescu, Drago-Ion
[J]. SCIENTIFIC PAPERS-SERIES MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC ENGINEERING IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT, 2014, 14 (02) : 123 - 126
[7] THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF AN OIL SHOCK
HENIN, PY
[J]. REVUE ECONOMIQUE, 1983, 34 (05): : 865 - 896
[8] Macroeconomic impact of FDI in Romania
Gheorghe, Zaman
Vasile, Valentina
[J]. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE EMERGING MARKETS QUERIES IN FINANCE AND BUSINESS, 2012, 3 : 3 - 11
[9] The macroeconomic impact of aid volatility
Hudson, John
Mosley, Paul
[J]. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2008, 99 (03) : 486 - 489
[10] Trump's Impact: The End of Sameness
Mead, Lawrence M.
[J]. SOCIETY, 2017, 54 (01) : 14 - 17

← 1 2 3 4 5 →