The EU's Agenda 2000 reform for the agricultural sector: environmental and economic effects in Denmark

The Agenda 2000 reform, agreed on by the EU government leaders in the spring of 1999, implies considerable changes in EU agricultural policy. The reform involves both reductions in price support and compensations in the form of hectare and animal support. The Agenda 2000 reform may have considerable environmental and economic effects, and in this article we assess these effects. Within an integrated model system, we calculate environmental effects (changes in nitrogen loading in the terrestrial environment and the Danish marine waters, changes in oxygen concentrations in the inner Danish marine waters, and changes in emissions of the greenhouse gases (methane and nitrous oxide), as well as economic effects (effects on private consumption, GDP, the balance of payments, and employment). The results indicate that the Agenda 2000 reform has significant economic costs but almost no effects on the environment-either positive or negative. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.