Central Asia's international relations in the Asian context

Most analysts of Central Asia's international relations assume that Russia dominates the scene and faces Muslim rivalry from Turkey and Iran. While Russia is the single largest international factor in the region and has sought to dominate it through coercive diplomacy, such an analysis overlooks the crucial Asian dimension of Central Asia's international relations. A closer look at the region shows that Russia is encountering difficulties and cannot sustain its neo- imperialist policies. Central Asian states can now turn to India or Pakistan as well as the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States for help. The United States has blocked Russian spheres of influence in energy policy and is generally limiting Russian influence there. India and Pakistan have been attempting also, with partial success thus far, to utilize the area in their rivalry, which has enhanced Central Asia's opportunity for trade and improving relations. Nevertheless, the single greatest potential rival to Russia will probably be the PRC. The PRC has been driven by its energy needs and fear of Islamic self-assertion to devise a sophisticated policy toward Muslims and Central Asia and could well emerge as Russia's rival. As a result, the Asian dimension of Central Asia's international affairs has now become one of great-power rivalry.