Atmospheric moisture budget and floods in the Yangtze River basin, China

In this paper, we explored the trends of the atmospheric moisture budget, precipitation, and streamflow in summer during 1961 to 2005 and possible correlations between them by using the linear regression method in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicate that: (1) increasing tendencies can be detected in the atmospheric moisture budget, precipitation and streamflow in the Yangtze River basin; however, the significant increasing trends occur only in the atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin; (2) both the ratio of summer moisture budget to annual moisture budget and the ratio of summer precipitation to annual precipitation exhibit a significant increasing trend in the Yangtze River basin. The ratio of summer streamflow to annual streamflow is in a significant increasing trend in Hankou station. Significant increasing summer precipitation can be taken as the major controlling factor responsible for the higher probability of flood hazard occurrences in the Yangtze River basin. The consecutively increasing summer precipitation is largely due to the consistently increasing moisture budget; (3) the zonal geopotential height anomaly between 1991 and 2005 and 1961 and 1990 is higher from the south to the north, which to a large degree, limits the northward propagation of the summer monsoon to north China. As a result, the summer moisture budget increases in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, which leads to more summer precipitation. This paper sheds light on the changing properties of precipitation and streamflow and possible underlying causes, which will be greatly helpful for better understanding of the changes of precipitation and streamflow in the Yangtze River basin.