Predicting High Confidence Errors in Eyewitness Memory: The Role of Face Recognition Ability, Decision-Time, and Justifications

Increasing research shows that high eyewitness confidence at the time of an initial identification is a strong predictor of accuracy (Wixted & Wells, 2017). However, as with all forms of criminal evidence, this relationship is imperfect. This study addresses whether there are variables that systematically influence the rate of high confidence misidentifications. Notably, this is the first study to document the influence of face recognition ability on the confidence-accuracy relationship. Participants viewed photos of individuals of their same race or a different race and performed a lineup recognition test after either a 5-min (n = 277) or 1-day (n = 292) delay. High confidence identification errors were more likely when (a) individuals are worse face recognizers, (b) decision-times are slow, and (c) responses are justified with references to familiarity (e.g., "He looks familiar").