Industrial Diversity, Trade Patterns, and Productivity Convergence

Recent developments in economic integration show rather diverse patterns of integration in the world economy. Some countries remain predominantly in the low-tech industries whereas other countries succeed in becoming competitive in high-tech industries as well. The authors postulate that a country positioning itself at the lower end of the spectrum of high-tech industries is more favorable to its long-term development than aiming at the upper end of low-tech industries. They argue that countries which specialize in the lower end of the medium-high-tech activities are rewarded by faster productivity increases also in the upper end of the high-tech industries. In contrast, early specialization in medium-low-tech branches yields positive spillovers, mainly in the low-tech sector, which is not conducive to increasing activity in high-tech industries. The authors sketch a theoretical outline of this idea and present econometric results, including four aggregate manufacturing branches across 37 countries.